The 2023 Kentucky Derby is Here!

It’s that time! The 2023 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday from Churchill Downs. The race marks the 149th Run for the Roses and the 2023 Kentucky Derby could set a new record after the 2022 version had a $179 million betting handle, the largest in the history of the race.

Some Quick Derby Stats

• California - In recent editions of the Kentucky Derby, horses that had trained in California have shown superior performance compared to their counterparts from other regions. In fact, over the last 11 races, seven of the winners (Medina Spirit, Authentic, Justify, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, and I’ll Have Another) had spent the winter training at Santa Anita Park in California, although a few of them had also raced outside of the state before the Derby.
  
  Moreover, in the past 12 years, California has produced several runners-up and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Derby, including Exaggerator (2016), Firing Line (2015), Bodemeister (2012), Battle of Midway (2017), and Dortmund (2015). Thus, it is fair to say that 3-year-old horses from California deserve additional consideration when competing for the prestigious Kentucky Derby title.

  
  

• Fade Posts 1 and 2? - With a larger number of horses competing, starting from inside post positions can be quite challenging in the Kentucky Derby. Unless the horses make a quick start or fall back to mount a comeback from the rear, those starting from post positions 1 and 2 find it difficult to have a smooth and unobstructed run.
  
  The inside post positions, in particular, have a reputation for being tricky, with no Derby winner hailing from the rail post since Ferdinand in 1986. Post position 2 has also not produced a winner since Triple Crown champion Affirmed in 1978, indicating that both positions could prove unfavorable. In contrast, the wider post positions are generally more favorable, with eight of the last 12 Derby winners starting from post position 13 or beyond. For instance, in the previous year, Rich Strike won the Derby from post position 20.

  
  

• Winners Produce Winners - In recent editions of the Kentucky Derby, horses that have won their final prep race have enjoyed an advantage over their competitors. In fact, nine out of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners had entered the race off a victory, and if you include Maximum Security, who was disqualified, the number goes up to 10. Additionally, seven out of those 12 winners had entered the Derby season undefeated, underscoring the importance of being in top form when competing at Churchill Downs.
  

  Among the contenders in this year's Derby, the ones that have won their final prep race are Forte, Practical Move, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, Lord Miles, Derma Sotogake, Kingsbarns and Confidence Gam.
  
  Meanwhile, four contenders, namely Forte, Practical Move, Tapit Trice, and Kingsbarns, remain undefeated in the 2021 season.

  
  

• The Curse of the Unraced 2-year-Olds - For over a century now, winning the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old has been a rare feat, with only one horse, 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, achieving the feat. This underscores the importance of having a solid foundation as a juvenile in order to have a shot at winning the coveted title.
  
  In this year's edition of the Derby, two contenders did not race as 2-year-olds: Kingsbarns and Mage.

  
  

• Domestic vs Imported Horses - The vast majority of Kentucky Derby starters have competed exclusively in the United States and Canada. The last time a Kentucky Derby winner raced elsewhere was Bold Forbes in 1976. Bold Forbes had started as a juvenile in Puerto Rico and then competed exclusively in the United States leading up to the Derby. Since then, no horse that has raced outside of the United States and Canada has won the Kentucky Derby, with such horses going 0-for-44.

  
  
  

  Similarly, horses that have raced exclusively outside of the U.S. and Canada have also struggled in the Derby, failing to win in all 13 attempts since 1992. None of the 13 contenders that have exclusively raced outside of the U.S. and Canada have managed to finish in the top five.

  
  
  

  Among the contenders in this year's Derby, Derma Sotogake, Continuar, and Mandarin Hero have all raced outside of the U.S. and Canada. However, only Derma Sotogake and Continuar have exclusively raced outside of North America. It should be noted that many think Derma Sotogake has a HUGE chance in this year’s Derby.

Let’s Look at this Year’s Runners

We break down each horse (some more than others) with our own personal notes and thoughts.

1 Hit Show

Speed figures generally trend in the right direction.

Not sure if it can get the distance.

Obviously, the rail sucks.

Stablemate is Verifying.

2 Verifying

Distance is the question here.

Almost has to go with that post-draw, and his two wins are generally on the front at 1st or 2nd call.

Thought the replay of the Bluegrass was visually impressive against Tapit Trice.

 3 Two Phil's

Has the co-highest Timeform speed figure with Practical Move (120 figure). Fastest beyer and brisnet figure.

How many guys named Phil out there are going to bet on this one?

Coming out of the Risen Star which was a 14-horse field.

The Hawthorne work was very impressive.

He glides right over to the rail in the Jeff Rubys so he might like this post. He also draws away barely asked, granted wasn’t the strongest prep.

4 Confidence Game

70-day layoff, Desormeaux said he needed some time off from the Rebel in the slop.

Also missed some workouts and an odd work schedule in general.

Looks to love the slop, the fast-track form is questionable.

Bought for $25k and has earned nearly $800k

Some say he can be a pacesetter but we think its more mid-flight.

April 29th work was impressive.

5 Tapit Trice

Had to be hard-ridden in the Tampa Derby but still won.

Usually slow to get rolling from the gate and out of the 5 starts he’s basically dead last.

Still won 4 of those 5.

Saez is on fire at CD right now, really has a good feel for the track.

Needs to find a trip but should hit the exotics.

6 Kingsbarns

3/3 (GP, TAM, Louisiana) and won the last two by open lengths.

Lightly raced but hasn’t faced much.

Did not run as a 2yo. Horses are 1/71 in the Derby historically, Justify was the only winner.

Prat and Saez went elsewhere putting Jose up which isn’t a bad thing.

Did come home in a hand ride last out.

We feel it’s likely to hit the exotics.

7 Reincarnate

Plenty of early speed with JV up who has 4 Derby victories.

Wire to wire in the Sham

Both wins have been on the lead so expect Velazquez to send it.

8 Mage

Really depends on if the horse can break out of the gate or not.

Also no starts as a 2yo.

Lightly raced so may have some upside.

9 Skinner

Timeform race ratings have some of these Cali preps (mainly the SA Derby) as high-quality races based on class.

Juan Hernadez is a rider upgrade for this horse.

Had some wide trips previously.

A lot of talks around the last two workouts.

1st time outside of California.

10 Practical Move

Two of the top-speed figures in the field.

Perfect trips so far it seems but at the same time not the best out of the gate.

1st start outside of California

SA Derby wasn’t that impressive on the replay and really had to earn it.

11 Disarm

3rd start in six weeks.

Steve has been HIGH on this horse.

Many say this is one of the more fittest horses in the race.

12 Jace's Road

Wants to be forward but is more likely probably a rabbit for AoE.

Would be a very big surprise to hit the board.

13 Sun Thunder

Blinkers on for the first time in the Derby seems to be trying hard.

His maiden at CD is his lowest speed figure.

Has lost to several entrants in today’s race previously.

14 Angel of Empire

4 wins at a mile or longer

Took a big step forward in the Arkansas Derby.

Improving dirt figures.

Gobbling up ground in the Arkansas Derby replay and Prat wasn’t really all out.

Cox and Prat in Kentucky are always dangerous…

15 Forte

Exits his lowest Beyer speed figure since October.

Do we think he moves forward or has plateaued?

Consistent and really hasn’t done much wrong.

Visually looked great over Mage in the Fl Derby

Will Irad finally get a Derby?

16 Raise Cain

Finished off the board in its final prep, so not the form we see winning here.

May appreciate the slop should the track be muddy.

17 Derma Sotogake (Jpn)

Won the UAB Derby wire to wire.

A lot of the runners who came from UAB usually get in a week early, Derma has been here for a few weeks.

Diverse work style.

No horse has ever won from post 17.

Japan got Dubai and Saudi Cup, The Sheema….

Much the best over Continuar in works.

18 Rocket Can

Definitely needs to be as close to the pace as possible.

Not entirely in love with this horse in general.

Adds blinkers which some may see as a not-so-great move but we trust Mott.

19 Lord Miles

59-1 upset Wood Memorial winner.

Does this horse bounce off that impressive effort or continue to improve?

20 Continuar (Jpn)

Hasn’t won this year

Was easily beaten working with Derma Sotogake (JPN).

21 Cyclone Mischief

Will be a pace threat if drawn in.

22 Mandarin Hero (Jpn)

Didn’t do much wrong in the SA Derby, and would expect improvement here if drawn in.

Almost a perfect 6 of 6.

23 King Russell

His 2nd lowest Beyer speed figure was here at Churchill, would be a huge upset.

More Fun Facts about the Derby

Todd Pletcher is Packing Heat - With three horses in this year's Kentucky Derby, Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher is aiming to join an elite group of trainers who have won the race three times. Pletcher's contenders this year are led by Forte, who is the pre-race betting favorite and won the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Pletcher also has Tapit Trice, the winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, and Kingsbarn, the winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

According to The Athletic, Pletcher has entered 62 horses in the Kentucky Derby, more than any other trainer. He has already won the race twice, with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. However, this year marks only the second time that he has trained the favorite for the race, as reported by the Henry Herald.

Bet The Gray? - Only eight gray or roan horses have ever won the Kentucky Derby, but there were four entered in this year’s race, including Tapit Trice, who is one of the favorites to win. The others are Reincarnate, Hit Show, and Rocket Can.

Post Position Matters? - The No. 17 post is 0-for-43 in the Kentucky Derby. It is the only post position not to win at the Derby; Forty Niner came close in 1988, finishing second to Winning Colors. Can Derma pull it off?

The No. 5 post position has produced the most winners in Kentucky Derby history with 10. Second place goes to the No. 10 post, which has nine winners. In third place is the No. 8 gate, with eight winners.

How Good Are the Favorites? - Since 2000, only 10 post-time favorites have won the Kentucky Derby. Six came between 2013 and 2018.

Secretariat was Pretty Fast! - The Kentucky Derby is called the most exciting two minutes in sports for a reason. The record for the quickest finish is held by Secretariat, who won the 1973 Derby with a time of 1:59.40 en route to the Triple Crown.

$$$$$$$$$ - The most money wagered on Kentucky Derby was in 2022 when $179 million in bets were placed. That topped the previous high of $165.5 million set in 2019.

Betting Based on Names? - Horses with a name starting with the letter S have won the Kentucky Derby 19 times, more than any other letter. The only first letters that haven't won the Derby, you ask? Q and X.